Barack Obama vs. John McCain.
I'm sure you would love pages of analysis from me but I will try and boil this general election down to the nitty gritty.
John McCain will try and paint Barack Obama as someone who lacks judgment and experience. Please don't confuse this with what Hillary Clinton tried to do to Obama. McCain has been in the Senate a long time. He is well versed in public policy. McCain knows a thing or two about national security and the military.
These are two important advantages he has over Hillary Clinton so what he will try to do at every turn is knock Obama off his game and bring him down into the weeds of public policy discussion. They want to expose Obama as a young, inexperienced one term Senator and they believe that if they can draw him into a frank discussion of the issues, they can cause him to make gaffes. At that point, the narrative changes on Obama. The last thing the McCain camp wants is for Obama to remain on the high pedestal of lofty, change inducing speeches. He's untouchable up there.
The presidential debates will be very important. Extremely important. McCain will lose the visual contest -- old guy vs. young guy -- but it will be a key moment for McCain to some how, some way force Obama into a major gaffe that will redefine the election. With the way Obama has energized new voters into the mix and with the gloomy anti-Republican mood in this country, McCain is going to need a couple Obama gaffes to make the case that Obama is not ready for primetime.
Obama on the other hand has already revealed his hand. He is going to try and make John McCain into George Bush. That strategy may or may not work but there's another strategy at play here as well. The Obama campaign is going to hit McCain hard with the "Washington Insider" label. They believe the more McCain is identified with Washington, questionable lobbyist ties and his years and years and years as a Senator, the better the chances for their campaign. Let's face it. Usually, hope and change win over old and stodgy.
Looking at this race from an electoral map perspective, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania will be key swing states like they always are but you can now throw Virginia into that mix as well. McCain needs to win Virginia. If Obama wins it, it could be a long night for the McCain campaign. Also, the mountain west will be crucial. Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada will be major battleground states.
Let the battle begin.